Emirates NBD presented its own outlook of the Dubai property market

Emirates NBD made a forecast for the future and compared different views on the Dubai housing market development.

Analytical department of the Emirates NBD has presented a report on the Dubai real estate market development in summer months based on data collected through The Dubai Real Estate Tracker.

Property Tracker is a tool that collects market data from two different but complementary sources: brokerage agencies and homeowners.

Data collected by Emirates NBD for the three summer months revealed that 60% of real estate agents noted a decline in sales, while only 13% of them have seen some growth. More than half of respondents (54%) also reported a decline in consumer activity during summer months.

“The Dubai Real Estate Tracker survey is consistent with price data and shows a further slowing in the residential real estate sector over the summer months. While the slowdown is partly seasonal, other factors including concerns about the economic outlook and USD strength have weighed on demand,” said Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD.

However, Emirates NBD survey respondents shared great common optimism concerning the future: 45% expect a rise in prices in the next 12 months and only 30% expect a further decline. The other half of survey respondents comprised by homeowners are looking to the future with even greater confidence: 65% of them expect property prices increase in Dubai before the year end, and only 17% expect a decline.

Other market participants suggest we should forget all the numbers at all: “Look at the clear cut information from the market and forget all those reports. Population, economy, tourism, number of visitors to the airport and infrastructure investment is growing in the emirate. If you see these factors and see the results of the two biggest real estate companies (us and Emaar) in the first half of the year, we both booked sales close to Dh13 billion… You have seen the number and nobody can dispute that,” Ziad El Chaar, Managing Director of Damac said.

“Even the Dubai Land Department has reported Dh53 billion in transaction value in the first six months of 2015 of which Dh30 billion came from non-Arabs. This reflects the great trust in this market… so with all of this ‘2016 is still gloomy’,” he asserts.

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